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Why getting Pyongyang back to the negotiating table will be harder in Trump’s second term

During his first term as president, Donald Trump became the first-ever sitting US president to meet in-person with a North Korean leader – not once, but three times. He even went as far as stepping foot on North Korean soil.In the presidential campaign this year, Trump boasted about his personal relationship with Kim Jong-un, saying the two “fell in love” as they exchanged letters and held summits. While the president-elect has not explicitly expressed his intention to pursue an engagement strat...

North Korea and its middle power friends

While the West tends to dismiss North Korea as a rogue state or hermit kingdom, the reality is that North Korea is a nuclear power. That automatically boosts its position on the international stage. The Lowy Institute’s 2024 Asia Power Index (API), released this week, makes several mentions of North Korea, perhaps the most noteworthy of which is its classification of the country as a “middle power” alongside 15 others including South Korea, Russia and Japan.The country poses a major security thr...

Pariah states and the Olympic Games | Lowy Institute

As the world eagerly anticipates the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, the intersection of international politics and sport once again takes centre stage. The participation of so-called "rogue states” (or pariah states) in the Olympic Games has long been a contentious issue, with Russia's involvement being particularly controversial given its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's troubled relations with the Olympics dates back to the 2014 Sochi Winter Games, where a state-sponsored doping program

Trouble together: How North Korea sees its growing interests with Iran | Lowy Institute

Following months of strengthening its relationship with Russia, North Korea is expanding its horizons, by sending a diplomatic delegation to Tehran to explore potential avenues for collaboration. Given the alleged military assistance Iran and North Korea are providing to bolster Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, burgeoning ties between Pyongyang and Tehran could serve to cement this emerging three-way axis. Moreover, with Iran and Israel clashing aggressively and North Korea capable of escalating
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China knows North Korea needs it most, despite conspicuous Russia-DPRK ties

Indicators show DPRK and China have quietly advanced ties amid uproar over Russia arms trade since start of Ukraine war

Editor’s note: This is the first article in a series examining what China thinks of growing Russia-DPRK ties since the start of the war in Ukraine.

When it comes to North Korea’s diplomatic ties, there’s no doubt that its growing cooperation with Russia has dominated media attention since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Reports of DPRK arms sales to Russia in support of its
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Breaking the deadlock: When China took the lead in talks with North Korea | NK News

Breaking the deadlock: When China took the lead in talks with North Korea Beijing proved its ability to negotiate with US, DPRK and ROK in past, and it may be last hope to revive diplomacy now The current state of inter-Korean relations is dire, with North Korea announcing it no longer seeks reunification with the South and recent general elections in the ROK highlighting public disinterest in DPRK issues altogether. Negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea about Pyongyang’s nuclear program
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How North Korea exploited the tragic Sewol ferry sinking for anti-ROK propaganda | NK News

Tuesday marks the 10th anniversary of the worst tragedy in recent South Korean history: the sinking of the Sewol passenger ferry off the country’s southwest coast. The disaster claimed the lives of more than 300 people — the vast majority high school students on a field trip — and deeply damaged public trust in the government, setting off a series of events that brought down the president three years later.

It has also been one of the single most common topics in North Korean state media over t
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Despite opposition win, ROK election just reinforced North Korea status quo | NK News

The outcome of South Korea’s general election on Wednesday dealt a major blow to President Yoon Suk-yeol, with the opposition Democratic Party (DP) winning 176 seats and the People Power Party (PPP) 109 seats in the 300-member National Assembly.

But while the DP majority appears set to frustrate many of Yoon’s policy priorities, its election victory is unlikely to derail the conservative president’s more hardline approach to North Korea, or his efforts to bolster cooperation with the U.S. and J
South China Morning Post •

Opinion | UN’s sanctions-fuelled approach to North Korea must end

Regarding the latter, the panel’s most recent report, published in March, states that “there can be little doubt that United Nations sanctions and their implementation have unintentionally affected the humanitarian situation and some aspects of aid operations”. The report also notes that North Korea has “continued to flout Security Council sanctions” and further developed its nuclear weapons programme

The panel, established in the wake of North Korea’s second nuclear test in 2009, has acknowled
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‘Impossible’ to gauge North Korean humanitarian need without access: Aid groups | NK News

Humanitarian organizations say North Korea’s ongoing border closure has made it “impossible” to accurately assess the level of need inside the country, according to the latest U.N. Panel of Experts report, with no information from Pyongyang on when foreign aid workers will be able to return.

Several organizations told the panel overseeing the DPRK sanctions regime that North Korea’s pandemic border controls are the primary barrier to humanitarian activities in the country, rather than internati
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What can still be done about widespread human rights abuses in North Korea | NK News

What can still be done about widespread human rights abuses in North Korea

Little has changed since UN detailed crimes against humanity, but experts see ways to build on success raising awareness

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the U.N.’s groundbreaking investigation on North Korean human rights, which found that the scale of abuses in the DPRK “reveal a State that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world." Yet a decade after the Commission of Inquiry (COI) report was publi
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The US softened its tone on North Korea. But it’s still singing the same tune. | NK News

The US softened its tone on North Korea. But it’s still singing the same tune.

Recent rhetoric about ‘interim’ denuclearization steps may aim to ease tensions but doesn’t signal a US policy change

A series of statements by U.S. officials in recent days has appeared to soften Washington’s tone on North Korea, expressing a willingness to consider “interim steps” toward the goal of denuclearization. But while this shift in language may be aimed at reining in growing tensions on the Korean Peninsu
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New film champions ROK’s first president, and his hardline stance on North Korea | NK News

A newly released South Korean documentary has put the spotlight back on the country’s first President Syngman Rhee — and on his hardline approach to North Korea still popular in conservative circles.

“The Birth of Korea” (건국전쟁) recounts Rhee’s life story and his leadership during the Korean War, winning praise from politicians on the right for honoring what they say are his forgotten achievements.
Lowy Institute •

Can South Korea become a global pivotal state? | Lowy Institute

“South Korea should no longer be confined to the Korean Peninsula but rise to the challenge of being what I have described as a ‘global pivotal state’, one that advances freedom, peace, and prosperity through liberal democratic values and substantial cooperation.”

This was the foreign policy vision put forth by then-presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in February 2022. With South Korea now joining the UN Security Council (UNSC) as a non-permanent member for the 2024–25 term, President Yoon has
Lowy Institute •

Open and shut: North Korea sends a message with its embassy network | Lowy Institute

North Korea started the new year with a bang, declaring it will no longer pursue unification with an “enemy” in South Korea. More cruise missile tests have set the region on edge, while North Korean weapons are appearing on Ukraine’s battlefield.

But Pyongyang has also sent signals in a different fashion, in deciding the diplomatic relationships the reclusive state will prioritise.

North Korea has closed various embassies in recent months, shrinking its already small diplomatic network. At the
South China Morning Post •

Opinion | 4 reasons North Korea abandoning reunification raises chance of war

Although the two Koreas regularly trade insults and military provocations along the border, these statements by Kim in recent weeks have changed the dynamics on the peninsula. North Korea set the tone for the new year on December 31, when Kim announced the major change in the country’s unification policy, which he said had failed to achieve its goals. Instead, relations with South Korea have “repeated the vicious cycle of contact and suspension, dialogue and confrontation”.

North Korea says it
The National Interest •

Why North Korea Will Keep Causing Major Trouble in 2024

More missile tests, rapidly advancing relations with Russia and China and zero progress on diplomacy with the United States and South Korea — this was the direction North Korea took in 2023. While the rest of the world was distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Pyongyang continued biding its time, expanding its military arsenal and solidifying its Cold War-era alliances.

The year started with Kim Jong-un calling for a massive increase in the production of tactical nuclear weapons and labe
East Asia Forum •

Pyongyang’s pivot back to military tensions and Cold War alliances

More missile tests, rapidly advancing relations with Russia and China and zero progress on diplomacy with the United States and South Korea — this was the direction North Korea took in 2023. While the rest of the world was distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Pyongyang continued biding its time, expanding its military arsenal and solidifying its Cold War-era alliances.

The year started with Kim Jong-un calling for a massive increase in the production of tactical nuclear weapons and labe
South China Morning Post •

Opinion | Spy satellite launches on Korean peninsula bode ill for peace

North Korea also announced plans to conduct more launches soon while saying that its new satellite has sent back detailed images of major South Korean cities, American military bases in Guam and Hawaii, and the White House.

North Korea launched its satellite on November 21 after two failed attempts earlier this year. Although South Korean intelligence claims that Russian help was responsible for the successful launch, evidence to support this has not been made available.

A new, dangerous layer
Lowy Institute •

The extra bad news behind the latest Korean break-down | Lowy Institute

North Korea sent a satellite rocket up, and a key deal with South Korea came tumbling down.

The effective scrapping last week of the inter-Korean military agreement was not entirely unexpected but is still significant. South Korea annulled part of the accord after North Korea’s 23 November satellite launch, calling the move “a minimal defensive measure”. But the danger in the wake could be a series of offensive actions by both sides. Pyongyang has since declared it will no longer be bound by th
Lowy Institute •

Worth a thousand words: what Kim Jong‑un’s daughter photo tells | Lowy Institute

North Korea’s leader has publicly revealed the existence of one of his children for the first time. But the big announcement didn’t come in the form of a statement or a traditional family portrait. Instead, photos of Kim Jong-un and his daughter in front of a giant inter-continental ballistic missile made the headlines.

In North Korea, the leadership succession is as important as the survival of the country itself. It ultimately falls on the country’s leader to protect the nation against foreig
The National Interest •

Has North Korea Joined Russia and China’s Anti-American Alliance?

Isolated from the international community and in urgent need of weapons and ammunition to continue its fight in Ukraine, Russia has chosen to double down on its alliance with North Korea.

Isolated from the international community and in urgent need of weapons and ammunition to continue its fight in Ukraine, Russia has chosen to double down on its alliance with North Korea. Although Moscow and Pyongyang have been allies for decades, recent developments point to deepening military cooperation, wh
Lowy Institute •

The Fix: An evolving Saudi Arabia | Lowy Institute

We’re asking contributors to put together their own collected observations like this one – and as always, if you’ve got an idea to pitch for The Interpreter, drop a line via the contact details on the About page.

Once known for its seemingly infinite supply of oil, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is increasingly expanding its role in international affairs beyond energy. From trying to broker peace in Ukraine and restoring diplomatic ties with Iran to deepening cooperation with China, Saudi foreign
East Asia Forum •

North Korea–Russia alliance revives Cold War divisions

Russia reaffirmed its intentions on 26 October 2023, when the Kremlin pledged to ‘continue to develop close relations in all areas’ with Pyongyang. Similarly, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui warned on 28 October that North Korea’s relations with Russia will act as a ‘powerful strategic’ element if security in the region is endangered as a result of US-led trilateral military alliance with South Korea and Japan.

The deepening of the North Korea–Russia alliance took off in July 2023 wh
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